Wow, what a couple of months this has been! I can sure say one thing, I learned a lot about the markets. I learn every time they go up and they go down! That is the main thing that we all have to remember. No matter what we are buying, the price of everything in dollar terms in going to go up, and it is going to go down.
Some things can even eventually go to zero and stay there. (paper sure can! or at least be 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 within it!)
And it does not matter how long it takes - sooner or later the price of something is just going to go DOWN. There is just only so much purchasing power out there wether it be priced in silver, priced in gold, priced in gasoline or priced in a paper currency whose money supply is 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000. It just does not matter! All things, ANYthing that is out there, sooner or later is going to go down.
This is where the key lies to a great fortune, and it does not matter where it starts. It can start at $100, or perhaps even at $10!
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Saturday, June 11, 2011
A PERSONAL THOUGHT:
Please Read:
Bankruptcy Corporate America
I am in a situation that is parallel to the article writer here.
I am working in a sweatshop of whose conditions are deplorable, at best. There is little if any reguard for anyone's personal safety (even though they will tell you with a straight face it is safe), the temperature can reach 100 F+ with NO proper air circulation, and the packaging, picking, and shipping position's workload are grueling. The plant is NEVER without mandatory overtime with 6 day work weeks approaching 60 hours. The turnover rate over the course of a month is 99% (NOT an exaggeration)!
I have to tell you all, it has been one of the most eye opening experiences of my life, concerning labor and it's value. It has allowed me to reboot and redo my work ethic which over the years has been slacking. It has also taught me that there is SOME, not much, but SOME value left in the US currency, and that time is of the essence that I take in as many as I can, simply because I feel strongly there is a time forthcoming that I just will not be able to say this.
Perhaps the next job I take on I will be more conscious about providing the best labor I can, no matter the pay rate, perhaps I will THINK before I leap into my next investment transaction and not be an ASSHOLE and lose a bunch of money like I did last year, and perhaps finally, FINALLY I will be able make something of myself doing what I love to do.. economics and trade!
I asked THE MOST HIGH, the LORD GOD of ISREAL, to give me a job. He just did not give me any job, but one where he could use it to open my eye to a few things, and for that I thank him, in love, in JESUS's prescious name, AMEN.
I know the next one he provides for me I will be able to give 110% in and will help me to further my career goal.
Bankruptcy Corporate America
I am in a situation that is parallel to the article writer here.
I am working in a sweatshop of whose conditions are deplorable, at best. There is little if any reguard for anyone's personal safety (even though they will tell you with a straight face it is safe), the temperature can reach 100 F+ with NO proper air circulation, and the packaging, picking, and shipping position's workload are grueling. The plant is NEVER without mandatory overtime with 6 day work weeks approaching 60 hours. The turnover rate over the course of a month is 99% (NOT an exaggeration)!
I have to tell you all, it has been one of the most eye opening experiences of my life, concerning labor and it's value. It has allowed me to reboot and redo my work ethic which over the years has been slacking. It has also taught me that there is SOME, not much, but SOME value left in the US currency, and that time is of the essence that I take in as many as I can, simply because I feel strongly there is a time forthcoming that I just will not be able to say this.
Perhaps the next job I take on I will be more conscious about providing the best labor I can, no matter the pay rate, perhaps I will THINK before I leap into my next investment transaction and not be an ASSHOLE and lose a bunch of money like I did last year, and perhaps finally, FINALLY I will be able make something of myself doing what I love to do.. economics and trade!
I asked THE MOST HIGH, the LORD GOD of ISREAL, to give me a job. He just did not give me any job, but one where he could use it to open my eye to a few things, and for that I thank him, in love, in JESUS's prescious name, AMEN.
I know the next one he provides for me I will be able to give 110% in and will help me to further my career goal.
2011 Q3 forcast update : DEBT_USURY_FIAT_CURRENCY_ENDGAME
I have decided to update the Q3 forecast.. previously I gave three scenarios, and after some observation and listening to various opinions, I have decided that there is a #4, but it is NOT good.. I have reason to believe this will be a combination of #2 and #1, occurring in that order.
We are entering into what I term DEBT_USURY_FIAT_CURRENCY_ENDGAME.
These types of currency systems, BOTH in theory and in actual reality (Zimbabwe, Argentina, former USSR for examples.. there are many more too numerous to name), end either in hyper inflationary or deflationary collapse, depending upon the poison the central bank takes. If you will recall and/or review what I have said before, you will know that loans need to be constantly made in order to replace currency that is sucked out of the currency system.
When you get up to the point we are at and there are so many currency units in the system that they literally become astronomical numbers, It becomes harder and harder and harder still for the central bank to maintain this balance between the loans being made (currency IN) and loans being paid (currency OUT).
It becomes analogous to trying to stand a sharpened pencil on it's point.. as that point becomes sharper, the force needed to knock over that pencil becomes so small and so minute it becomes impossible for that pencil to stand. So what happens next? It is only logical that you make the opposing force stronger to hold that pencil up until it begins to fall in the opposing direction. Rinse and repeat.
I believe that this is what the Federal Reserve is about to try and do.
God help ANYONE if it be his will, who actually thinks their long term portfolios backed by nothing but paper are going to protect them in these incredulous economic times.
We are entering into what I term DEBT_USURY_FIAT_CURRENCY_ENDGAME.
These types of currency systems, BOTH in theory and in actual reality (Zimbabwe, Argentina, former USSR for examples.. there are many more too numerous to name), end either in hyper inflationary or deflationary collapse, depending upon the poison the central bank takes. If you will recall and/or review what I have said before, you will know that loans need to be constantly made in order to replace currency that is sucked out of the currency system.
When you get up to the point we are at and there are so many currency units in the system that they literally become astronomical numbers, It becomes harder and harder and harder still for the central bank to maintain this balance between the loans being made (currency IN) and loans being paid (currency OUT).
It becomes analogous to trying to stand a sharpened pencil on it's point.. as that point becomes sharper, the force needed to knock over that pencil becomes so small and so minute it becomes impossible for that pencil to stand. So what happens next? It is only logical that you make the opposing force stronger to hold that pencil up until it begins to fall in the opposing direction. Rinse and repeat.
I believe that this is what the Federal Reserve is about to try and do.
God help ANYONE if it be his will, who actually thinks their long term portfolios backed by nothing but paper are going to protect them in these incredulous economic times.
Saturday, June 4, 2011
My Stab at 2011 Q3 Economic Forecast
It has been a while, but I am back!
The job I am working is taking up a lot of time and energy! But given the forecast I am about to give, I am glad I am working it! One of the things I have done from time to time is give an economic forecast, most of which have been pretty accurate, notably the US housing crash made in 2005, the major downturn in 2008, and most recently, the horrible US economic numbers that are now being given. They are given in an IF-THEN format, usually going from quarter to quarter. If you want one for a year from now, please consult your nearest accurate crystal ball. There is simply no way to know exactly what is going to take place then, other than an approximation.
Q3 2011 will be dependent upon what happens here at the end of Q2 in June, and another major event to take place that I am seeing during the summer.
Now you will find a major reference to the Federal Reserve and what it is going to do, as well as what congress is going to do concerning the debt ceiling. See, it all comes back to what I said before in my third ever blog entry.. It is the private central bank, the Federal Reserve, that writes the blank check that congress spends. Without the central bank, that would fall back to the US Treasury who's revenue steam was coining money and tariffs on imported goods. (which by the way, was sufficient for the first 130 years of the country's existence!)
Now we have the "end" of QE2 (quantitative easing, another word for "credit expansion" and "money printing") here in June. That I expect to end with no QE3 or 5 or 10 or 75432. However, given the fact that the US economy is obviously still in shambles, it is possible that they will do QE in some other form. If this is the case, then scenario #1 will play out in early summer as opposed to later.
The other event we have is going to be the US debt ceiling. I have strong reason to believe that if that debt ceiling is raised, it will have large, protracted downside effect on the US dollar and thus scenario #1 will play out as if QE were to continue.
So we have actually three scenarios (note that we could see a combination thereof as well!):
#1 - Start of a hyper-inflationary collapse. The continuing of QE and/or the raise of the debt ceiling will be a huge neon sign that says to the world "NO FISCAL DISCIPLINE HERE!" The numbers in a debt-usury-fiat currency system set up the hyperinflation and the political side is the trigger. No doubt I will be watching this as closely as the Chinese are, who have already complained loudly about the fiscal state of the US back in early May.
#2 - Start of another dis-inflationary (like 2008) or a deflationary collapse (like 1929). Both scenarios will be very bad for US asset prices, including the equity, labor, and commodity markets. This scenario seems unlikely since the pain will be immediate and will cause riotous political upheaval in the United States sooner than that of #1, which also will cause upheaval, albeit a bit slower that that of #2.
#3 - The one where the markets shrug this all off and we continue the bottom bouncing like we have from 2009 until now, at least until some other event takes place that will send markets higher or lower, depending upon the circumstances. It is possible that the world will continue to be transfixed on problems in Europe. These problems are very real, but when all you hear in the mainstream media is EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE, it is hard to pay attention to the problems in the United States, which are also real and most definitely bigger that that in Europe!
I wish I could come up with something better, but this is the best case that I am seeing. I wish I could have number 4 where all is well and we truly begin to recover, but I do not think either party has any clue as to what to do about this mess. They both follow the same broke ass economic model. As my late step-father might of said as a computer programmer: "GARBAGE IN = GARBAGE OUT." It is no different than the fact that your financial results will only be as good as the advice you take and act upon, PERIOD.
The job I am working is taking up a lot of time and energy! But given the forecast I am about to give, I am glad I am working it! One of the things I have done from time to time is give an economic forecast, most of which have been pretty accurate, notably the US housing crash made in 2005, the major downturn in 2008, and most recently, the horrible US economic numbers that are now being given. They are given in an IF-THEN format, usually going from quarter to quarter. If you want one for a year from now, please consult your nearest accurate crystal ball. There is simply no way to know exactly what is going to take place then, other than an approximation.
Q3 2011 will be dependent upon what happens here at the end of Q2 in June, and another major event to take place that I am seeing during the summer.
Now you will find a major reference to the Federal Reserve and what it is going to do, as well as what congress is going to do concerning the debt ceiling. See, it all comes back to what I said before in my third ever blog entry.. It is the private central bank, the Federal Reserve, that writes the blank check that congress spends. Without the central bank, that would fall back to the US Treasury who's revenue steam was coining money and tariffs on imported goods. (which by the way, was sufficient for the first 130 years of the country's existence!)
Now we have the "end" of QE2 (quantitative easing, another word for "credit expansion" and "money printing") here in June. That I expect to end with no QE3 or 5 or 10 or 75432. However, given the fact that the US economy is obviously still in shambles, it is possible that they will do QE in some other form. If this is the case, then scenario #1 will play out in early summer as opposed to later.
The other event we have is going to be the US debt ceiling. I have strong reason to believe that if that debt ceiling is raised, it will have large, protracted downside effect on the US dollar and thus scenario #1 will play out as if QE were to continue.
So we have actually three scenarios (note that we could see a combination thereof as well!):
#1 - Start of a hyper-inflationary collapse. The continuing of QE and/or the raise of the debt ceiling will be a huge neon sign that says to the world "NO FISCAL DISCIPLINE HERE!" The numbers in a debt-usury-fiat currency system set up the hyperinflation and the political side is the trigger. No doubt I will be watching this as closely as the Chinese are, who have already complained loudly about the fiscal state of the US back in early May.
#2 - Start of another dis-inflationary (like 2008) or a deflationary collapse (like 1929). Both scenarios will be very bad for US asset prices, including the equity, labor, and commodity markets. This scenario seems unlikely since the pain will be immediate and will cause riotous political upheaval in the United States sooner than that of #1, which also will cause upheaval, albeit a bit slower that that of #2.
#3 - The one where the markets shrug this all off and we continue the bottom bouncing like we have from 2009 until now, at least until some other event takes place that will send markets higher or lower, depending upon the circumstances. It is possible that the world will continue to be transfixed on problems in Europe. These problems are very real, but when all you hear in the mainstream media is EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE, it is hard to pay attention to the problems in the United States, which are also real and most definitely bigger that that in Europe!
I wish I could come up with something better, but this is the best case that I am seeing. I wish I could have number 4 where all is well and we truly begin to recover, but I do not think either party has any clue as to what to do about this mess. They both follow the same broke ass economic model. As my late step-father might of said as a computer programmer: "GARBAGE IN = GARBAGE OUT." It is no different than the fact that your financial results will only be as good as the advice you take and act upon, PERIOD.
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