Wednesday, May 18, 2011

SILVER : WHAT IS IT? WHAT IS IT USED FOR? WHAT IS THE STATE OF THE SILVER SUPPLY?

Silver - chemical symbol Ag , atomic number 47 , atomic weight 107.8682 , melting point 1234.93 K , boiling point 2435 K

Silver is a greyish-white atomic element of nature. It is very ductile (meaning it can be drawn out very thin over a great distance) and also very malleable (can be beaten into nearly any shape, though slightly less so than gold). It also has the highest electrical conductivity of any metal, even higher than copper. This characteristic makes it indispensable for electronic applications. Pure silver also has the highest thermal conductivity of any metal, and among the highest in reflectivity.

Main uses for silver, as presented by expert silver analyst, David Morgan:

Batteries, Bearings, Brazing, Catalyst, Coins, Electrical, Electronics, Electroplating, Jewelery, Medical Apps, Mirrors, Photography, Solar Energy, Water Purification

In fact, even though silver is mainly seen as used in coins, over 40% of silver consumed on an annual basis is due to industrial demand! Most of that silver used is irrecoverable economically, meaning that it would cost way more in energy input to recover it than what you would get back, especially at today's prices. Due to it's characteristics, it is indispensable to today's technology, so much so that it is not a stretch to say that much of today's technology simply would not exist without it!

It was estimated that as late as the late 1980's, there was 1.8 to 2 billion ounces of silver above ground. Todays number I am currently estimating to be about as low as 100 million ounces but could be as "high" as 300 million. No one including myself can be certain of this number, but given that the Chinese currently use 1/70th of the amount of silver that the western world uses per 4 person household, even 500 million ounces does NOT leave a lot of silver left for such a population.

It is no wonder that silver is in rather short supply.
But wait, there's more!!

Silver supply and demand has been in a deficit since 1990! In the 1990's silver was trading at about $5. Silver's price was so low, most of the mines mining silver as a primary product closed, and primary silver producers became non-existent! The vast majority of silver mined by the end of the decade was produced by companies that mined silver as a by product to other metals.

Now it seems that this issue is starting to come to a head. Several bullion dealers that I track are reporting having some difficulty obtaining it. The smaller denominations - 1oz to 10oz and US silver eagles are not readily being found. Now it appears even 90% coins minted in the US before 1965 are starting to have their premium rise.. something that in the 6 years Ive been tracking silver has simply never happened. Apparently I am not the only one who is seeing this. consider: http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/silver-price-least-you-should-worry-about

In regards to the gentleman's comment concerning a secular (10-30 year) top, I would have to add this: You heard absolutely NOTHING about how horrendously overvalued tech stocks were in early 2000 on the TV, and absolutely NOTHING about how horrendously overvalued housing was in 2006!! Yet at the end of April 2011, all you heard when you turned on the "boob-us tube-us" was how much of a bubble silver was in!! It was so bad and so loud it was deafening. This is NOT a sign of a secular top but rather a sign that we are JUST GETTING STARTED in a bull market. Silver was about $5 and crude oil was about $18 a barrel during the 1990's. Now with $100 a barrel oil and $30 silver, what is making these COMEX silver short traders think that silver is going to be mined any easier is certainly beyond me!

In my opinion, it may take a while before we see new highs in the metal. Bull markets do what we refer to as "climb a wall of worry". I will have more later and will track what is happening chart wise right here.